Automated, Location-Specific Forecasts
CREATE-AQI is developing an automated air-quality modeling system to provide two-day forecasts with an hourly time resolution on a 4-km horizontal grid that covers the State of Utah. These forecasts will be generated twice a day and will be designed to optimize model performance for PM2.5 and PM10, although we will also provide ozone (PM2.5 and ozone make up the EPA Air Quality Index metric). In addition to the forecasted pollutant concentrations, we will also provide forecasts for the Air Quality Index (AQI), EPA’s metric for reporting air quality. We will provide AQI forecasts of ozone and particulate pollution so the EPA AQI Activity Guides can be referenced.
Common meteorological products are unable to resolve the small-scale meteorological processes often found in areas of complex terrain, like our mountains. Using a numerical weather prediction model (WRF), we will dynamically downscale the mesoscale forecasts to a spatial resolution that can resolve meteorology in areas of complex terrain. Our air pollution emissions are based on the EPA National Emissions Inventory (NEI) and Utah-specific anthropogenic and biogenic emission estimates from the UDAQ. Our numerical models will be optimized for meteorological conditions over mountainous terrain and for the air-quality issues that are common in Utah (e.g., smoke, dust, and wintertime inversions). Our dust model is driven by meteorological output generated by our 4-km WRF model simulations and is based on recent work by Dr. Mallia and Saylor et al. This dust model is being optimized for dry lake beds, which are a major source of dust in Utah. Our forecasting work leverages computing resources from the UU’s Center of High Performance Computing (CHPC).
Forecast Videos
Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Forecast
Ozone (O3) Forecast Video
NASA WorldView Satellite
Smoke Event on August 6, 2021
The two forecast videos show daily particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) concentrations from an air quality model for one month (4-31 August 2018). The model simulates how pollutants are transported downwind, including chemical reactions with sunlight, to form secondary pollutants. Ozone is an example of a secondary pollutant because it is not directly emitted from an air pollution source. The ozone precursor gases are emitted, then as they are transported downwind the sunlight initiates chemical reactions that form ozone. In the O3 video, the increased ozone concentrations (dark red) move from west to east, with the prevailing winds because the ozone is formed downwind of air pollution sources. Particulate matter can be emitted directly from air pollution sources, and it can also come from chemical reactions in the atmosphere. In the PM2.5 video, several days have high concentration plumes (dark red color). These are wildfire smoke plumes during August 2018, where smoke from large wildfires in the western U.S. negatively impacted the air quality. Daily NASA satellite visible images are shown to compare the smoke plumes in the visible images with the modeled PM2.5 smoke plumes.
Project Focus Areas
The project entails three core research areas.
Air Quality Guidance
Air quality guidance targeted to protect children and student-athletes from the impacts of poor air quality.Read more...